Trading Bot HQModels & runsTestsResearch

Models & runs

Every run, tagged with the exact versions that produced it — deterministic core, AI gate, cost model. Two runs are comparable only when their version strings differ in the one thing being tested. Edge is net expectancy minus the dumb baseline's: the number that says whether the strategy beats coin-flipping with the same geometry.

Lineage is provenance and is never mixed. mentor rules come from the mentor's material only; external from the published record only (docs/RESEARCH-PUBLISHED-STRATEGIES-v1.md); hybrid must state which part came from where. A run without a lineage is refused at registration, so a mentor result can never be read as external evidence.

Backtests — walk-forward, out-of-sample

StrategyLineagePairCore versionGateTradesNet/tradeGross/tradeBaselineWin rateMax DDWFEVerdict
disp_follow_btc_v1hybridBTCUSDdisp_follow_btc_v1@b3179d9cnone93-0.108R+0.098R+0.034R
edge -0.142R
15.1%-62.7RVALIDATION FAILreport ↗
prereg ↗
disp_follow_btc_v1hybridBTCUSDdisp_follow_btc_v1@dad61f97none516+0.101R+0.235R-0.083R
edge +0.184R
27.7%-41.5RBAR METreport ↗
prereg ↗
fable_mentor_internal_btcmentorBTCUSDfable_mentor_internal_btc@490c38b6none165-0.222R-0.071R-0.082R
edge -0.141R
29.7%-37.8R-2.77FAILreport ↗
prereg ↗
mentor_btc_v1mentorBTCUSDmentor_btc_v1@e6dbd293none11836-0.241R-0.017R-0.239R
edge -0.002R
48.4%-2858.2RFAILreport ↗
prereg ↗
fable_mentor_internalmentorXAUUSDfable_mentor_internal@1a29b085none (core-alone)43-0.040R+0.100R-0.268R
edge +0.227R
34.9%-12.8R-0.37FAILreport ↗
prereg ↗
dual_thrustexternalEURUSDdual_thrust@14d59e56none (core-alone)106-0.021R+0.013R-1.057R
edge +1.036R
50.9%-6.3R-0.50FAILreport ↗
prereg ↗
donchian_externalexternalGBPUSDdonchian_external@340ab2fdnone (core-alone)227-0.151R-0.045R-0.026R
edge -0.124R
30.0%-47.3R2.89FAILreport ↗
prereg ↗
expansionmentorGBPUSDexpansion@06ed67b5none (core-alone)61-2.497R+0.976R-2.205R
edge -0.292R
18.0%-152.3R1.19FAILreport ↗
prereg ↗
london_breakoutexternalGBPUSDlondon_breakout@c12c74f9none (core-alone)335-0.045R+0.020R-0.378R
edge +0.333R
49.0%-26.9R-2.24FAILreport ↗
prereg ↗
expansion_v2mentorEURUSDexpansion_v2@671d0374none (core-alone)6+0.216R+0.346R-0.214R
edge +0.429R
50.0%-0.9R7.97FAILreport ↗
prereg ↗
expansion_v2mentorGBPUSDexpansion_v2@671d0374none (core-alone)26-0.472R+0.120R-0.213R
edge -0.259R
30.8%-13.2R2.23FAILreport ↗
prereg ↗

Paper trading — live data, no capital

Nothing here yet. No paper runs yet — they register themselves once the paper loop runs.

A backtest and a paper run sharing a core version are the honest comparison: same rules, real execution conditions. A gap between them is the cost of reality — slippage, latency, feed differences — and it is expected to be negative. Gate columns fill in on paper and live runs, where every candidate gets one gate call and one attribution-ledger row.